How accurate has Know Snow been so far this year? Take a look! We’ve had a total of 3 snow events that have impacted school, and here are the stats… Looks like some improvement needs to be made for Greenwich, Stamford, and Westport! Not an easy year so far. Overall though, not too bad. Last year Know Snow ended with 87% accuracy… Hopefully that will be beaten this year!
I CRINGE posting this… SO MUCH uncertainty with this storm in terms of timing, intensity, and authoritative decisions on the part of each town and superintendents. With that said though, MOST schools should close tomorrow. If they do not, don’t be surprised. There’s also the chance that if they do not, an early dismissal will be implemented. Take this lightly, and conservatively. One of the hardest calls I’ve had to make. Keep your fingers crossed!
Here’s our first call! The threat for snow will creeping into the region this evening, but will stay mostly light, with little accumulation for most. It’s once we get into late tonight where we have to start watching heavier snow develop and moves into the entire region, bringing accumulating snow. It looks like coastal regions will pick up between 1 and 3 inches of snow, while areas away from the coast pick up 2-4 inches of snow. The snow begins mixing in with sleet and freezing rain between 3 AM and 5 AM across coastal regions, while inland regions hold off on mixing until between 4 AM and 6 AM. The coast will see freezing rain for an hour or two, through 6 AM or 7 AM at the latest, picking up minor ice accumulations on top of the snowfall. This could make travel very tricky tomorrow morning, but it might be just under the standards to delay school, as things change over to all rain. Further north and inland, the sleet and freezing rain may persist through 7 AM to 8 AM, before finally changing to rain by 8:30 AM. It’s POSSIBLE that New Fairfield and Sherman wait to change over until 9 AM or later, which is why those towns have a better chance of a delay than towns further south.
So with all of that being said, the coastal areas have a fair chance at seeing a delay tomorrow, but not a good enough chance at this time to forecast one. Slightly further inland, I’m borderline calling for a delay tomorrow, but again, not quite enough confidence at this time to go ahead and say there will be a delay, as there’s still a chance we see a changeover to rain in time for school to open regularly for some schools. However, once we get north of those towns, it looks like we’ll see widespread delays. Nothing to confident, but a 55% chance will warrant the likelihood of a delay tomorrow for the inland towns. Well up north into Sherman, there’s a 60% chance posted, as frozen precipitation may last into the mid-morning hours.
Another update to be posted at 8:00 PM… Check back then!
Interesting model runs this afternoon… In one set of models, we saw a trend towards drier weather and less snow for Monday, and in the other set we saw a trend towards colder and snowier weather for Monday.
If the first set of models, known as the American models, were to verify, there would be less than a 20% chance of school delaying or closing on Monday, as it would bring a brief period of snow over to mostly rain for the rest of the day. On the other hand, if we were to see the other set of models verify, known as the European and Canadian models, there would be a 60% or greater of a delay or closing.
Normally it would be tough to decide when these models are in such disagreement, but we’re going to through a storm system with cold air damming (CAD). In this specific case, because of the CAD, it makes more sense to side with the European/Canadian side of things, because they have previously handled these types of storm systems better. That’s not to say that they will 100% be correct, but I think they stand a better chance than the American models, which can often times be more progressive and oblivious to the cold air in place.
It’s hard to release details at this point because the storm system is still 4-5 days away, but for now it looks like a solid period of moderate snow will fall across the region, dropping light amounts of snowfall (1-4 inches), before switching over to sleet and freezing rain, and then finally rain. The areas in the northern part of the county will likely experience a more prolonged snow/Ice storm, thus increasing their chances of a closing/delay.
More information as more data comes in tonight… Be sure to check back!