Interesting model runs this afternoon… In one set of models, we saw a trend towards drier weather and less snow for Monday, and in the other set we saw a trend towards colder and snowier weather for Monday.
If the first set of models, known as the American models, were to verify, there would be less than a 20% chance of school delaying or closing on Monday, as it would bring a brief period of snow over to mostly rain for the rest of the day. On the other hand, if we were to see the other set of models verify, known as the European and Canadian models, there would be a 60% or greater of a delay or closing.
Normally it would be tough to decide when these models are in such disagreement, but we’re going to through a storm system with cold air damming (CAD). In this specific case, because of the CAD, it makes more sense to side with the European/Canadian side of things, because they have previously handled these types of storm systems better. That’s not to say that they will 100% be correct, but I think they stand a better chance than the American models, which can often times be more progressive and oblivious to the cold air in place.
It’s hard to release details at this point because the storm system is still 4-5 days away, but for now it looks like a solid period of moderate snow will fall across the region, dropping light amounts of snowfall (1-4 inches), before switching over to sleet and freezing rain, and then finally rain. The areas in the northern part of the county will likely experience a more prolonged snow/Ice storm, thus increasing their chances of a closing/delay.
More information as more data comes in tonight… Be sure to check back!